Local school districts' populations leveling out
UFRSD to see minimal increase; MTSD to see decrease by 2012
BY JENNIFER KOHLHEPP Staff Writer

ALLENTOWN - Two local school districts can rest easy for the next five years - they will have enough space to accommodate projected enrollments.

The Millstone and Upper Freehold Regional school districts commissioned Richard S. Grip, of Statistical Forecasting LLC in Secaucus, last fall to study the demographics of each community. Grip presented the results of the study to both districts' boards of education in a joint meeting held at the Upper Freehold Regional Elementary School on Feb. 20.

Millstone has a send/receive student relationship with the Upper Freehold Regional School District because it does not have its own high school. Since Allentown is also part of the regional school district, the demographer presented information about the borough as well.

The demographics study is intended to help both school districts predict their enrollments over the next five years. The state Department of Education does not allow demographers to predict enrollments for more than a five-year period because such analysis would rely on data that demographers are incapable of determining (such as births that haven't occurred yet), which could greatly skew predictions, according to Grip.

To formulate the predictions in the current study, Grip relied on the Cohort Survival Ratio, which is an enrollment projection method that essentially compares the number of students in a particular grade to the number of students in the previous grade during the previous year. He computed ratios for each grade progression and then used those ratios to project future enrollments.

To ensure accuracy, Grip also relied on information from birth records, certificates of occupancy and local planning officials to determine how housing development trends would affect the enrollment over the next five years.

Grip said the study "does not just project enrollment, but gives insight into what's happening to understand the dynamics in each district."

"The communities' populations are starting to flatten out, and the enrollment numbers are starting to decline," Grip said.

Both districts are experiencing negative kindergarten replacement, according to Grip. This means that the number of graduating students each year is larger than the number of kindergarten students enrolling the following year, Grip said.

When taking negative kindergarten replacement into account, the Upper Freehold Regional School District has lost 135-149 students in the last two years and Millstone has lost 63-85 students during the same time period, according to Grip.

As of Oct. 15, 2007, the Upper Freehold Regional School District had a total enrollment of 2,292 students, he said. Since 2002-03, the district has seen an increase of 474 students in its student population.

"The district's capacity will be 2,635 students with the middle school complete," Grip said.

The Upper Freehold Regional Elementary School can house 727 students. The new middle school will be able to house 664 students and Allentown High School can house 1,244 students.

The Upper Freehold Regional School District is expected to have 2,461-2,500 in grades K-12 by 2012-13, according to Grip.

"That's a gain of about 170 to 209 students in five years, which is not an incredible increase compared to what the district has seen in the past five years," Grip said.

By 2012-13, the Upper Freehold Regional elementary and middle schools will have 1,219-1,229 students. The schools currently enroll 1,224 students. Allentown High School will experience the biggest gain in student enrollment by 2012-13. He said the high school can expect to gain 175-204 students for a total population of 1,242-1,271 students.

Grip said that the school district should keep its eye on the high school population because it could soon exceed the capacity of the high school. However, board member Lisa Herzer pointed out that the annex, which is now housing elementary school students, would be used to house high school students once the district's new middle school is finished in 2010. The annex can house 184 students.

Grip said, "InMillstone, you don't have to worry about capacity if your enrollment goes down."

Over the next five years, the Millstone Township School District can expect to lose 105-121 students. He said that although the primary school would see a small gain in students, both the elementary and middle school populations are expected to decrease.

The Millstone Township Primary School can house 656 students. The township's elementary school can house 560 students, and the middle school can accommodate 653 students. Millstone schools have a capacity to house 1,859 students, he said.

As of Oct. 15, 2007, the Millstone Township School District had 1,653 students. Grip said since 2002-03, township schools have had a population increase of three students.

By 2012-13, the Millstone Township School District can expect to have a total student population of 1,548. Millstone's primary school is expected to gain six-11 students. Millstone's elementary school is expected to lose 27-33 students, and the middle school is expected to lose 89-94 students, according to Grip.

Grip said that Millstone officials credit downzoning, which is a reduction in lot sizes, and other land use planning changes in the township for the decrease in new children entering the school district.

Grip said that he did take potential development into account when compiling the enrollment projections. He said that in Millstone Township there is a potential for 91 new single-family homes over the next five years. He said if the homes are built, they could add approximately 84 new students to grades K-12.

Grip said in Upper Freehold there is the potential for 397 new single-family homes in the next five years, which could add 371 new students in grades K-12.

The demographer said that he did not modify his baseline enrollment predictions based on the potential new development in either district because the number of certificates of occupancy both towns expect to issue in the next five years is significantly lower than the number they issued between 2002-06.

Grip advised both districts to keep an eye on the housing market and development trends because the enrollment projections would change if either town started experiencing dramatic growth.

With regard to Allentown, Grip said that growth is not expected in the borough because the town is built out. He said in 2006 Allentown had a population of 1,962 and in 2020 is expected to have a population of 1,972, which would not greatly affect student enrollment rates